Negotiating an End to the War in Ukraine: Ideas and Options to Prepare for and Design a Negotiation Process
18 months into the war in Ukraine, a diplomatic solution is gaining momentum. However, diplomatic initiatives acutely lack discussions on what a negotiation process could look like and how to prepare for it.
Meanwhile, there is stalemate on the battlefield and neither side looks like achieving a decisive military victory in the near future. This means that fighting could drag on for an extended period of time, prolonging human suffering, infrastructural and environmental devastation, and the severe knock-on effects of the war for the rest of the world.
The study presents new comparative evidence and analysis showing that
- negotiations statistically constitute the most likely chance of sustainably ending the war.
- planning and preparing for negotiations can happen even while the fighting continues
- preparing for negotiations now will help Ukrainians defend their interests in any negotiation format
- any negotiated settlement needs to take into consideration the reality that the causes of the war are broader than Russia/Ukraine and include unresolved conflicts between Russian Federation and NATO
- Ukrainians – both in government and civil society – should have access to and influence over any negotiation format to ensure the primacy of Ukrainian interests and ownership
For further reading please see the briefing note and the full report:
Briefing Note: https://www.inclusivepeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/UKR-negotiations-preparations-briefingnote-2023.pdf